| HCP |
% |
| 0 |
0.3639 |
| 1 |
0.7884 |
| 2 |
1.3561 |
| 3 |
2.4624 |
| 4 |
3.8454 |
| 5 |
5.1862 |
| 6 |
6.5541 |
| 7 |
8.0281 |
| 8 |
8.8922 |
| 9 |
9.3562 |
| 10 |
9.4051 |
| 11 |
8.9447 |
| 12 |
8.0269 |
| 13 |
6.9143 |
| 14 |
5.6933 |
| 15 |
4.4237 |
| 16 |
3.3109 |
| 17 |
2.3617 |
| 18 |
1.6051 |
| 19 |
1.0362 |
| 20 |
0.6435 |
| 21 |
0.3779 |
| 22 |
0.2100 |
| 23 |
0.1119 |
| 24 |
0.0559 |
| 25 |
0.0264 |
| 26 |
0.0117 |
| 27 |
0.0049 |
| 28 |
0.0019 |
| 29 |
0.0007 |
| 30 |
0.0002 |
| 31~37 |
0.0001 |
|
|
| This table gives the expectancies of having
specific point counts, using the 4-3-2-1
count. Note that the chances of holding exactiy
one-fourth of the points -10- is the most
probable, but only by a slight margin over
9. The chart also shows why many players
prefer to use a lower range for an opening
notrump, say 12-14, rather than the usual
15-17 or 16-18. The chance to use notrump
as an opening bid comes up far more often.
The chance of holding 12-14 points comes
to 20.6345%, or one hand in five. The chance
of holding 15-17 is only 10.0963%, or one
hand in 10 - only about half as often as
12-14. Of course most of the hands with these
counts will not be opened 1NT for one reason
or another - usually distribution. |
|
